Bull Run

The Treasury’s recent adjustment to its buyback strategy, which involves increasing long-dated repurchases from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, is likely to influence market liquidity, particularly in the 10- to 30-year sector. This change matters for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as it may lead to lower long-end yields and a diminished appeal for “safe assets,” potentially driving capital toward scarcity trades. This is especially relevant given that ETF flows and institutional positions are already reacting to macroeconomic developments. Recent trading activity indicates that Bitcoin has swiftly responded to this policy shift, with traders adjusting their positions based on the Treasury’s announcement. The key consideration now is whether this adjustment will lead to a temporary price spike or signify the beginning of a sustained upward trend as we approach year-end. Traders should monitor Treasury actions, real yields, and Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its gains following this announcement to better understand the implications of this new liquidity environment. ...

ASML has raised its revenue forecast for 2026 to €36–40 billion, reflecting a 15% increase from previous expectations. This adjustment is largely driven by heightened demand for advanced AI chips from companies like Nvidia and TSMC, as businesses accelerate their investments in AI infrastructure following ChatGPT’s 2022 launch. As a leader in extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, ASML plays a crucial role in the production of these sophisticated chips, positioning it favorably within the AI infrastructure market. Although the stock experienced a decline of approximately 4–6% following the announcement, the long-term outlook appears positive. Supply constraints are prompting customers to expand capacity, which may support ASML’s growth. Traders should monitor forthcoming capital expenditure announcements from major chipmakers and any changes in export regulations that could influence ASML’s global reach. ...

The current AI market phase is evolving rather than ending, transitioning into one focused on earnings growth. After three years of dominance by megacap stocks, the market is now shifting towards capital expenditures and productivity benefits across non-AI sectors. Wall Street strategists observe a rotation into industrials, healthcare, and financials as AI begins to unlock tangible economic value. This development appears grounded in solid fundamentals, with earnings growth supporting valuations rather than relying solely on speculation. NVIDIA (NVDA) continues to serve as a crucial hardware provider, supporting data centers and robotics, while Alphabet (GOOGL) is integrating AI into its cloud and search operations to enhance future margins. Both companies are well-positioned to benefit as AI transitions from infrastructure to application. Investors should monitor upcoming quarterly earnings reports to see if AI revenue aligns with the significant capital expenditures and to determine if the market rally can extend beyond the tech sector. ...